SALMON 2100 PROJECT

Lackey, Robert, Denise Lach, and Sally Duncan - Salmon 2100 Project: Alternative

Futures for Pacific Northwest and California Salmon (introduction to symposium)

The primary goal of the Salmon 2100 Project is to identify practical options having a high probability of maintaining biologically significant, sustainable populations of wild salmon. Current wild salmon recovery efforts in western North America (especially California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and southern British Columbia), as earnest, expensive, and socially disruptive as they currently are, do not appear likely to sustain biologically significant populations of wild salmon through this century. Long-term sustainability, although broadly supported in the abstract, remains elusive in reality. Rather than supporting or advocating any particular policy or class of policies, the overarching theme of the Salmon 2100 Project is to help policy makers and the public evaluate a suite of possible policy options by providing a number of independent, practical, policy-neutral policy prescriptions that would work. To accomplish its goal, the Project has enlisted 30 scientists, resource managers, policy advocates, and

policy analysts. The policy prescriptions offered by Project participants are universally candid, sometimes uncomfortably radical, and occasionally sobering. Most Project participants conclude that major, sometimes wholesale modification of core societal values and priorities will have to occur if significant, sustainable populations of wild salmon are to be present in the region through 2100.

Williams, Jack and Phil Pister - Salmon 2100: Proposed Lifestyles and Ethical Values

to Sustain Salmon and Ourselves

If wild salmon are to prosper into the next century, we must come to grips with how our lifestyles affect land and water resources -- and learn to change our ways. Nearly all our day-to-day decisions about what we eat, how we get to and from work, and how we live, directly or indirectly influence salmon resources. It is tempting to suggest that if we just recycle more or reduce our electrical demand during peak hours that this will be sufficient to maintain natural systems. Unfortunately, as much as such actions may help, they are not sufficient to maintain salmon and other species. If everyone on Earth consumed resources at a rate equal to the average U.S. citizen, we would need 4.5 planets to meet our demands. High energy consumption, especially the burning of fossil fuels, is the largest factor contributing to modification of the environment, including climate. What is needed is a fundamental shift in our ethical construct that more fully integrates humans into the natural world and more equally divides the resources of this finite planet among all its inhabitants. We offer concrete suggestions for reducing our ecological

impact in ways that seek to sustain salmon and improve the quality of our lives.

Bailey, Larry and Michelle Boshard - Follow the Money: Cost Effective Strategies that

Will Restore Wild Salmon Through 2100

The current management model for salmon recovery is deeply flawed structurally, logistically, andpolitically. The failures are not because we lack policies, plans, technical knowledge, or ability. We know what needs to be done, so the question is not “can we manage to restore the wild salmon”, but “can we manage ourselves so that wild salmon can be restored?” Current salmon recovery has followed a “top-down” central-planning model employing purely technocratic approaches driven by political and economic interests, and implemented through overpaid consultants or appallingly inefficient agencies. Those who own land or live in the watersheds hosting critical salmon habitat have the most impact on habitat, and the most at stake economically and culturally, but

the least influence on the process. Until salmon recovery is woven into the business of society — the source of degradation to salmon habitat— it never will occur. Local watershed councils need to be developed as have other local delivery and business models for societal imperatives like education and health care. Give community the defacto leadership role, the means to develop their capacity, the benefits of funding, and the ability to tax locally. Generating economic benefit is key to public buy-in.

Hartman, Gordon, Tom Northcote, and Jeff Cederholm - Human Numbers: the

Alpha Factor Affecting the Future of North American Salmon

Maintenance of Pacific Northwest salmonids, let alone prevention of their extirpation by 2100, requires measures-policies influencing a hierarchy of different and changing threats. Policy makers, and even some fishery managers, must understand this and become better informed about the basic biology of different species and populations. Future Pacific Northwest population/development conditions, very different from present, will preclude maintenance of the complex natural environments that support salmonids. Fisheries managers may lead policy and regulation development to protect fish from direct habitat and fishery-related causes of decline. However, they have no influence regarding over-arching problems and impacts from population-driven economic

development that threatens salmonid resources through global and national processes. We develop a detailed Okanagan basin example (part of the Columbia River system) showing how population growth, urbanization and agricultural development pressures, plus decision-makers catering to their continuation, destroy fish habitat and populations. We do not list policies needed, but rather indicate the nature of required fisheries policies. However, society as a whole must decide on maintaining salmonid resources and the broader ‘Alpha-related’ social and economic policies to do so.

Ashley, Ken - Wild Salmon Recovery in the 21st Century: Energy, Triage, and Choices

Voice: (604) 660-1812

The conservation and restoration of wild salmon in California and the Pacific Northwest is a daunting task. Salmon, because of their anadromous nature, compete with humans for habitat throughout their freshwater and estuarine life stages, and are influenced by industrial society while at sea. Three core drivers will ultimately determine the fate of wild salmon in western North America: regional population growth, our “consumer society” and societal energy demand. My principle strategy for ensuring that abundant populations of wild salmon will exist in western North America in 2100 is to establish a network of wild salmon refugia and reserves based on a triage-type approach before the mid 21st century energy crisis occurs, as society will be unable to deal with salmon

conservation during this period. Selected wild stocks will receive watershed scale protection through outright land purchases according to their genetic relatedness and value as future donor populations. A special category is defined where a stock is permitted to become extinct under exceptional circumstances and an “Extinction Tax”

levied against the responsible parties to ensure survival of the next nearest stock. Extinction credits are not proposed, as this plan is centered on conservation of unique stocks in specific watersheds.

Brannon, Ernest - Salmon Through 2100: Engineering the Future for Pacific Salmon

and Steelhead

Although Pacific salmon and steelhead are listed at risk of extinction, those listings are unwarranted. The problem is that NOAA Fisheries has incorrectly defined species at risk. Certain populations have gone extinct, and others are declining, but the taxonomic species are not at risk. It has been forgotten that government traded off these wild fish for other priorities. The commercial fishery, hydropower dams, introduction of exotic sport fish, and other water uses all contributed to loss of wild fish, and those tradeoffs were mitigated for with production of hatchery fish. Ironically, hatcheries are now alleged as one of the caused for the decline. The problem was that fisheries management disregarded the population structure and biological needs of those species artificially

propagated. The solution to that problem is a new model with artificial propagation that addresses those needs of salmon and steelhead. The approach is to build engineered streams that complement the space and complexity of natural habitat, but managed to provide the security, flow control, woody debris, and nutrient productivity requirements for good survival. This paper outlines the concept for sustained natural-type production of stream dwelling anadromous salmonids.

Dose, Jeffrey - Salmon 2100: Commitment, strategy, action: the three pillars of wild

salmon recovery for the Pacific Northwest

Restoring widespread, abundant runs of wild Pacific salmon to rivers within their historical range in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and southern British Columbia would require sweeping changes from the current, largely unsuccessful approach. Despite large expenditures, the status of most wild stocks in the region is

poor. Absent significant policy changes, the future is bleak. The kinds of changes necessary if society truly wishes to sustain significant runs of wild salmon require a paradigm shift that reflects a genuine social commitment to wild salmon recovery, overcoming long-standing institutional impediments, implementing an ecologically-based

strategy, and fundamentally changing many existing land and water uses. Our current approach to recovering wild salmon is not only failing, it misleads the public into thinking that we can sustain abundant wild salmon populations through 2100 without major shifts in our daily lives. Successful recovery must focus on attaining nearpristine

watershed conditions in at least some locations. There is room for optimism, salmon have thrived in many different environments and have innate recovery capabilities inherent in their biology. The scope of my recovery effort would likely represent the largest environmental restoration project ever undertaken anywhere and the impact on human enterprise would be unprecedented.

Michael, Hal - A Realistic Salmon 2100 Recovery Strategy: Accommodating People,

Salmon, and Growth

The history of man’s relationship with wild anadromous salmonids is one of mutual exclusivity. Man and salmon have not been able to occupy the same watershed where both have high population densities. The current crisis for salmon populations from central British Columbia to southern California is a reflection of this fact. Society is currently wrestling with the concept of retaining and restoring salmon populations in this region. If large populations of anadromous salmonids and humans are to coexist in this region it will be necessary for society to explicitly define and implement specific areas that are for wild salmon, human agriculture, wood fiber production, domestic water production, and so on. It will not be possible to continue the idea that we can have it all if the region is to continue to support dynamic ecosystems supported by anadromous salmonids and dynamic ecosystems supporting human needs.

MacDonald, Don, Eric Knudsen, and Cleve Steward - Salmon Recovery: Managing

Human Activities to Achieve Long-term Sustainability

Salmon and steelhead serve as a powerful symbol for the quality of life we enjoy here on the Pacific coast of North America, and generate a wide range of economic, social, and cultural benefits for the region. Over the last century, however, there has been a widespread and marked declines in the size and number of Pacific salmonid

populations. Numerous populations have been extirpated, and many of those remaining are at precariously low levels and trending downwards. A variety of factors have conspired to threaten salmon and steelhead populations coastwide, including many that are largely beyond the scope of traditional fisheries management (e.g., human

population growth, resource consumption patterns, global climate change, broad land-use patterns). Therefore, it is not surprising that the solution to this conundrum does not lie in any one strategy or management action. Rather, society as a whole will need to develop and adopt a common vision for the future that includes healthy, diverse, and productive ecosystems, viable aboriginal, sport, and commercial fisheries, and vital and stable communities throughout the historic range of Pacific salmon. In addition, we will need to develop an integrated set of policies, regulations, and actions that provides a basis for managing human activities and human uses of natural

resources in a way that ensures that Pacific salmon populations are sustained and enhanced for future generations. This paper describes the key strategies for supporting a transition toward a more holistic and comprehensive approach to managing the human activities that influence fisheries and aquatic resources.

Rahr, Guido and Xan Augerot - Salmon 2100: A Proactive Strategy to Anchor and

Expand the Remaining Wild Salmon Strongholds

We must collectively adopt a bold salmon protection and restoration policy if significant, sustainable runs of wild salmon are to exist from British Columbia southward in 2100 and beyond. Despite concerted conservation initiatives in the U.S. and Canada, we have failed to sustain healthy populations of wild salmon in the North Atlantic and more recently in the southern and central parts of the northern Pacific Rim. Under the

Endangered Species Act-driven salmon recovery process, we focus salmon funding and technical resources toward salmon populations at the greatest risk of extinction (i.e., those that have the lowest probability of recovering). Unless we direct our recovery and restoration funding toward priority salmon ecosystems, there is a strong possibility that continued human population growth, increasing resource scarcity and our globally-oriented economic system will drive most western North American wild salmon populations toward extinction. We propose a salmon sanctuary strategy that will protect and restore selected centers of salmon productivity and diversity in river basins located in each ecological region of western North America. The salmon sanctuary concept is a

precautionary approach that proactively focuses initiative and resources on the permanent protection of the salmon ecosystems with the highest functionality, biodiversity, and inherent productivity -- the places and populations most likely to survive the threats they will face over the next 100 years.

Rees, Bill - Salmon 2100: Human Nature, the Growth Imperative, and the Future State

of Pacific Salmon

Hundreds of wild salmon stocks have been driven to extinction and many others are at risk. This situation is not unique—general biodiversity losses are accelerating worldwide. The decline of Pacific salmon is thus but one symptom of a deeper human eco-pathology. Building on far-from-equilibrium thermodynamics and complex systems theory, this paper argues that biodiversity loss is, in fact, an unavoidable consequence of continuous

human population and economic growth. Environmental economists argue that proper pricing of nature would restore balance in environmental decision-making toward conservation. However, the utilitarian, anthropocentric and instrumentalist framework of market economics is inherently biased against nature. With continuous population and economic growth, the value of landward salmon habitat for competing human uses in the Pacific Northwest will increase faster than the conservation and existence values of salmon themselves. Millions of ordinary people merely expressing their ‘market preferences’ therefore guarantees that habitat destruction, pollution and myriad other drivers of salmon decline will intensify in coming decades. Traditional regulation

cannot reverse the trend. Salmon can be saved only through determined policies and coordinated intra-regional planning that exclude humans from critical salmon habitat in the short-term and lead to timely adoption of a steady-state (zero growth) economy.

Bella, David - Saving Wild Salmon Through This Century: Wild Places the Only

Practical Recovery Option

When, despite expenditures of billions of dollars, the efforts of many dedicated, intelligent, and educated people, and much good, failure becomes apparent, radical re-thinking is called for. The fate of wild salmon is a failure of this kind. This paper sees wild salmon as a prophetic symbol, a challenge to examine ourselves, our presumptions, and practices. A central question of this paper is this: “What kind of world will we leave for our children?” Typically, the answer given is “That depends on our values.” This paper disagrees! Within a dynamic world, the cumulative outcomes of human actions – the world we leave for our children – might not reflect our “values.” Instead, it largely reflects the degree of irreversibility of some outcomes relative to others. A simple model

is presented to explain this claim. Thus, rather than calling for a change in “society’s values,” this paper calls for actions that address cumulative outcomes that are leaving a world for our children that is not consistent with either our values or the faith traditions that many of us hold dear. This reasoning leads to the following recommendation: establish a Wild Salmon National Park widely distributed throughout the region.

Knudsen, Eric and Eric Doyle - Wild Salmon in 2100: Science and Technology Will

Help Sustain Salmon Populations and Their Ecosystems

Current recovery plans and routine management activities for wild salmon will not be successful over the long-term unless significant changes are made to 1) societal priorities for salmon over other uses of the sameecosystems, and 2) the salmon management system itself. While social prioritization of salmon and their habitats are pivotal, this paper focuses on a concurrent re-emphasis of science and technology for successful salmon management. Poor understanding of the salmon production drivers and a lack of accurate and timely information have been major failings of salmon management. Our vision for 2100 is a future where salmon managers have a clear understanding about expectations for wild fish carrying capacity, are able to accurately predict and monitor

how many fish will return, and can precisely steer fisheries to harvest true biological surpluses without impacting future production or weak populations. While science and technology are not the sole panaceas for salmon recovery and sustainability, substantial increases in investments for technological capabilities are required for wild Pacific

Northwest salmon to be abundant in 2100. To guide this vision toward reality, we review the research and development required, and emphasize the need for a Salmon 2100 Science Funding Campaign.

Kolmes, Steve and Russell Butkus - Recovering Wild Salmon: An Ethical-Scientific

Basis for Achieving Recovery

We approach analysis of salmon recovery policy and the ethical implications of the assumptions underlying population modeling from the viewpoint of strategic interdisciplinarity, a collaborative effort addressing a complex problem utilizing scientific and theological-ethical analysis to propose ethical solutions and

policy guidelines. Our conclusions propose: SARA and the ESA should be preserved, but the present bureaucratic structure of responsibility for salmon recovery must be dismantled and replaced; a change from a paradigm of a public comment period on decisions made by federal agencies, to public decision making with an open comment

period for federal agencies; critical spawning and rearing habitat must be identified using landscape–based models for a holistic assessment of critical areas that in-stream or historically based models cannot; salmon recovery planning must be projected into a future of altered climate and precipitation patterns; hydropower dams must be reconceptualized with their primary role as maintainers of summer river flows; hatchery operations must be reorganized; current procedures for setting harvest limits should be abandoned; and sustainable community growth planning must be implemented.

Lombard, John - Salmon Recovery: Getting the Prices Right to Ensure Abundant Wild

Salmon Through 2100

Protecting and restoring salmon habitat at the scale necessary to address impacts from increasing population and resource consumption would cost a lot of money. The best way to raise it also would address perhaps the most fundamental driver behind these impacts: “The Rules of Commerce.” The free market efficiently allocates resources when prices account for all relevant costs. But that is far from the case. We withdraw water for

free, paying only to treat and convey it; we subsidize roads and development with general taxes; we grant permits for the free discharge of pollutants. “Ecological pricing” would correct this—and could raise a lot of new money. Just in the Puget Sound area, a charge of 1/10—cent per gallon of water would raise $400 million a year. Ecological pricing would also reduce demand for scarce natural resources, discourage new development, and change our individual and collective preferences. It would be resisted, but could gain popularity by also reducing general taxes and by changing the debate: do we really want to subsidize the destruction of our natural heritage? We must remember that salmon are only a part of this heritage, however important a part.

Martin, Jim - Countering the Climate and Development Juggernaut in the 21st

Century: A Strategy to Sustain Fishable Runs of Wild Salmon

The greatest challenge to long term existence of salmon from British Columbia to California will be rapid development driven by human population growth and changing climate over the next 100 years. Studies suggest that the low elevation valley floors will continue to be developed as cities expand into metropolitan corridors. This will severely limit the ability of salmon to persist in low elevation, valley floor streams. The climate change predicted for western North America includes more precipitation, less snowpack, higher summer temperatures, and earlier snowmelt. All of these changes will be damaging for salmon, especially when tied to greater power and water demand of an expanding human population. Only a change in land use planning and the reopening of our headwaters above high hydrodams to salmon colonization will create the conditions for salmon survival. This talk will explore these challenges and opportunities.

Lach, Denise, Sally Duncan, and Robert Lackey - Salmon 2100: Can We Get There

From Here? (Synthesis and summary of all presentations)

As part of the Salmon 2100 project, policy approaches for restoring wild salmon in the western US and Canada have been developed by more than 20 authors. Asked to think outside the box, they proposed policy prescriptions ranging from the technical to the spiritual, with many stops along the way. Most of the prescriptions, however, look at least vaguely familiar; twists on current arrangements and practices, more of this, less of that.

This presentation synthesizes the common themes raised by authors and suggests what appear to be the “untouchables” – those issues we are not willing to deal with in our search for sustainable wild salmon stocks. Given the temporal and spatial complexity of salmon habitat, it is not intuitively apparent just who (or what) are the winners and losers with any policy. A complicating factor is thinking into the future - how do we anticipate not only ecological changes but cultural, demographic, and climate changes that are all likely to affect salmon and our attitudes towards their restoration? As noted by the authors, any successful policy prescription will reflect a social and political re-framing of the “problem” of wild salmon in the 21st Century.